About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Monday, 25 September 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Sunday, 24 September 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 25


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2502, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
9964, -1.20%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3353, -0.03%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1298, -2.09%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
50.66, 1.54%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.94, -0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1470, 8.01%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1951, 0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
111.99, 1.01%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9704, 1.66%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.20, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.26%, 2.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
675, 25.70%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
9.59, -5.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
138
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2480, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2469, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2382, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10001, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
9954, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9236, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.81, 9.70%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.87, 1.15%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
9

7

Bearish Indications
2
6

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
China – PMI, New Zealand – Rate decision, UK – GDP, Euro – German elections, German IFO data, German employment data, CPI, U.S – Consumer confidence, Oil inventories, Home sales, Durable goods, GDP, Canada – GDP  






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals september 25

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2510 (up) and 2490 (down) on the S & P and 10000 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Cash - 40%
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Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.